2015 will be an amazing year, and the amount of turmoil we will see
likely will make 2014 look tame by comparison. Scandals, robots,
elections, and the emergence of a variety of new technologies should
define this space. As crazy as 2015 will be, 2016 is likely to be even
crazier.
We'll have robots, self-driving cars, armed autonomous drones, the
professional proliferation of head mounted cameras, some scandals, and
some interesting political implications.
Wireless Everything:
In 2015, we will begin to talk about the implementation of a number of
technologies we saw previewed in 2014 and that will be introduced at CES
next week. One of the biggest is
resonance charging,
which allows you to put a device in the vicinity of a charger and have
it charge wirelessly. This will show up first for cellphones and
tablets, and then later for laptops.
Mu-MIMO, which was
announced this year,
provides networking performance in line with gigabit switches. We'll
move to 10 gigabit products in 2015, showcasing how incredibly fast this
technology is advancing.
We'll also move to shared WiFi hotspots more aggressively, so you can
automatically connect to a WiFi network in a house or business that is
part of the same network you already subscribe to. Oh, and while 4G has
been talked up a lot this year, next year we'll start hearing more and
more about
5G. Just
as 4G made 3G look like crap, 5G will do the same to 4G. 5G is going to
make a mess of WiFi and Bluetooth as well, because we are the tech
market, and we like to mess with your heads.
Another Nail in Passwords' Coffin
We'll see biometrics move much more broadly. Already in a number of
phones (mostly Apple), it will move aggressively into tablets and PCs.
We should see a shift from fingerprint scanners to facial recognition as
the way to get into our accounts.
We'll likely still need at least one more element -- a cellphone,
tablet or PC -- to make sure we are who we say we are. The Blackberry
solution of
using the cellphone as a token also will become more widespread, since it provides an even more secure way to ensure we are who we say we are.
Sony RIP?
Sony just showcased the extreme and powerful benefits to doing this
and now this behavior will likely spread like wildfire. I expect the
escalation will result in the release of emails and other internal
documents that highlight just how badly some folks in power behave.
I also expect a lot of executives will be virtually unemployable when
all the dust settles. There is even a possibility that the damage to
the Sony brand will be unrecoverable, because its behavior likely will
be showcased as the cause for the resulting mess. This is another reason
Sony likely should have separated the content business from the rest of
the company some time ago.
Glass vs. Sapphire
A lot of the coverage of the scandal surrounding the failure of the
Apple supplier to create the screens for the iPhone 6 seemed to revolve
around implications the company was incompetent. In 2015, we'll likely
better understand why sapphire just doesn't work as well as hardened
glass.
Phones flex, but crystal doesn't, making it totally unacceptable for
phones. However, we will see this battle recur over and over again in
the coming year.
Robots :
Robots are advancing at an amazing/alarming rate. From robots used to
drive cars to robots for manufacturing lines to robots flying armed
aircraft, we will see a lot of amazing stories in 2015. Amazon
replaced a large number of full time workers
with robots in 2014, and it and other firms likely will accelerate this
in 2015. I think we'll be surprised at how capable these machines will
become and just what jobs are at risk.
On the other hand, we'll likely see far safer workplaces, safer
roads, and safer skies as a result of this -- at least initially --
until
Skynet goes live and they take over the world.
Head-Mounted Cameras and Displays
While Google has effectively killed Google Glass, due to really bad
husbanding, it did effectively launch this class of hardware. There is
now a massive amount of pressure to put cameras on police officers, and
because
head-mounted devices
see what the officer sees, they likely will emerge as far better for
both the officer and the citizen than those mounted on a shirt or car.
There have been huge successes in trials for doctors, technicians,
assembly workers, and other professions in which it's beneficial to
share what is being done with remote folks who can help, as well as see
manuals while keeping hands free.
Bad Analytics Stories:
We've been rolling analytics platforms into the market and into
companies and government agencies aggressively in 2014. Most of this
stuff hasn't properly vetted the data going in. Nor have the efforts
ensured that the executives who need the answers know how to use these
systems.
I think that is going to result in stories about the massive amount
of waste and bad decisions that resulted from these systems being
implemented improperly and incompletely.
Windows 10
This product has been far better than anything I've seen from Microsoft
in years in terms of addressing the problems that kept people from
buying or appreciating Windows 8. It works far more like Windows 7 and
Windows XP did, but better. Though it still works better than those
products did with touch, it doesn't require it.
I think we'll be surprised how popular this platform will be,
especially in business, which seems to have a love affair with it. This
could be the closest thing Microsoft has to a Windows 95 moment since,
well, Windows 95.
Google in the Headlines:
This year, it brought out products (Google Glass) that
got users beat up, and it doesn't seem to be learning from any of this. So I expect Google will be in the news a lot in 2015.
Applied Social Media:
I think we'll see a lot more focus on applied social media.
From consumer services like
Nextdoor (which currently is doing a good job of protecting people from package theft) to business services like
Ombud (which
connects purchasing agents to make sure vendors aren't taking advantage
of them), this idea of creating a specific social network designed to
focus on a clearly defined need is proving to be very valuable.
Ashton Kutcher as Lenovo's Steve Jobs:
I've been suggesting that the magic Steve Jobs created at Apple could be
recreated with a charismatic executive who has a love for products.
Lenovo is the only company giving this theory a shot, and the only firm
that has been able to get the idea of a celebrity executive partnership
to work.
Kutcher is personally husbanding Lenovo's next generation of tablets
to market, and they are stunning. Lenovo's Yoga offerings already
represent some of the best in their product class -- but to break out,
you need magic and Kutcher apparently plans to bring it.
This should all come together next week, and we'll then know whether
you really can recreate some of the old Steve Jobs Apple magic at
another company.
I should point out that the only reason this seems to be working is
that Kutcher studied to be an engineer (so he talks the language), does
have a passion for hardware (isn't just a paid shill), and has a chip on
his shoulder because he was criticized for playing Steve Jobs in the
movie so he has something to prove.
Apple Watch:
Speaking of Apple, the wearable space still doesn't have a defined
reason for being, and products are all over the map. The only vendor
that has demonstrated it can pull the market together on an idea in
recent years is Apple, and the
Apple Watch should at least drive some focus into the market.
In addition, this will be the true test of Tim Cook, because this
will be the first high-profile new segment product that will be launched
under his leadership. Regardless, it undoubtedly will pull a lot of
interest.
Nextbook Windows 2-in-1 Tablet
Typically, products in this class that run full Windows 8, not
Windows RT, hit price points above $750 -- and often are nearly twice
that. This is at a price point below where netbooks played and
Chromebooks play, and both of those products are crippled -- at least
when compared to a fully featured product. The Nextbook even has an
impressive seven hours of battery life and four processor cores.
I think this is going to break open products in this price range and
both fuel a stronger response by Microsoft against the Google Chromebook
and put a massive amount of pressure on the PC segment to reduce prices
to never-seen-before lows.
